BY: JIANLI YANG
The recent U.S. airstrike on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities was met with a restrained Iranian response—just 14 missiles fired at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar—followed swiftly by Iran’s agreement to a ceasefire. This sequence of events reveals how recent Israeli military strikes, targeted assassinations, and years of intelligence infiltration have severely threatened the survival of the Iranian regime. The U.S. strike, carried out with stealth and precision, exposed the weaknesses of Iran’s air defense systems and its limited capacity to sustain a prolonged conflict, compelling Iran to seek peace quickly.
Despite the ceasefire, significant uncertainties remain. The whereabouts of Iran’s enriched uranium are unknown, and no party can confirm whether the nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. Mutual distrust between Israel and Iran continues to undermine the prospects for a lasting peace, with accusations of bad faith and violations common. The ceasefire thus remains fragile, leaving the Middle East’s stability precarious. It is expected that the Trump administration will intensify pressure on Iran to return to negotiations, forcing Tehran to choose between preserving its regime or advancing its nuclear weapons program.
This 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran has significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear capabilities and triggered shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran has long positioned itself as the leader of the so-called “axis of resistance”, providing essential support to groups like Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, these proxies have been noticeably weakened by intensified Israeli operations, and Iran itself has been severely weakened by the recent conflict. The once formidable “axis of resistance” risks becoming largely symbolic, with diminished influence and capacity.
Source: https://www.yibao.net/2025/07/02/naive-to-compare-china-to-iran-east-asian-countries-must-fortify-their-defenses-and-diplomacy-in-an-uncertain-era/